Demo only — this investigation, its subject and its sources are fictional. It demonstrates how a real case is presented.
Holt Brennan called the Demo 500 above 6,000 for 2025. It closed at 6,212
In January 2025 Holt Brennan said his base case was the Demo 500 finishing the year above 6,000. It closed at 6,212.55.
The original statement
Exact quotationI expect the Demo 500 index to finish 2025 above 6,000. That's my base case, not a hope.
Context
Part of an annual outlook interview.
What happened afterward
Documented recordThe Demo 500 closed 2025 at 6,212.55.
The prediction, scored
Resolution criteria“I expect the Demo 500 index to finish 2025 above 6,000. That's my base case, not a hope.”
Outcome
The Demo 500 closed 2025 at 6,212.55, above the 6,000 target.
- Subject
- Demo 500 index
- Target
- ≥ $6,000
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Resolution
- Correct if the official close on 31 Dec 2025 is above 6,000.
- Observed
- 6,212.55 USD · manual · Dec 31, 2025 (America/New_York)
The investigation
DEMO ONLY — every person, quote, source and number in this case is fictional.
In an outlook interview published 6 January 2025, Brennan said: "I expect the Demo 500 index to finish 2025 above 6,000. That's my base case, not a hope."
Outcome
The official close on 31 December 2025 was 6,212.55. The prediction is resolved correct.
How we scored it
The call named an index, a level and a date, which made it measurable. We used the official closing level, not intraday highs. Brennan's other open prediction — DemoCorp at $400 by the end of 2027 — remains open and is not counted either way.
Evidence
2 sources- Exhibit A
Holt Brennan on the year ahead (DEMO)
DEMO — "I expect the Demo 500 index to finish 2025 above 6,000. That's my base case, not a hope."
- What it shows
- The prediction's wording and date.
- Identity / ownership
- Independently established
- Exhibit B
Demo 500 index official close, 31 December 2025 (DEMO)
DEMO — The Demo 500 closed 2025 at 6,212.55.
- What it shows
- The official 2025 close was 6,212.55.
- Identity / ownership
- Independently established
Timeline
"Above 6,000"
Outlook interview.
Demo 500 closes at 6,212.55
Target reached at the deadline.
Limitations
What this does not establishOne prediction does not make a track record; see the profile for the full denominator.
Subject response
Right of replyContact attempted
Correction history
No corrections. If you spot an error, tell us.