Predictions

Recorded word for word on the day they were made. Scored only when the stated deadline and resolution criteria are met. The original wording is never edited — any correction is logged publicly.

Resolved

1 correct · 2 incorrect · 1 partial

Open

Not counted as right or wrong

Excluded

0 unscorable · 0 disputed

Partially correctDemo only · fictional

“The Demo Tech index outperforms the Demo 500 this year, by a lot.”

Marla Quint · Said March 10, 2025

Demo Markets Network · Midday Demo — 10 March 2025 (DEMO) · at 03:02 · Mar 10, 2025 · example.com

Outcome

Demo Tech returned +14.1% against +11.8% for the Demo 500. It outperformed, but by 2.3 points, which we do not treat as clearly "a lot".

Demo Index Services · Demo Tech and Demo 500 total returns, 2025 (DEMO) · Jan 2, 2026 · example.com

Subject: Demo Tech vs Demo 500
Target: See criteria
Deadline: Dec 31, 2025
Resolution: Outperformance is measurable; "by a lot" was never defined, so only the direction can be scored.
Observed: 2.3 pct_points · manual · Dec 31, 2025 (UTC)

Resolved correctDemo only · fictional

“I expect the Demo 500 index to finish 2025 above 6,000. That's my base case, not a hope.”

Holt Brennan · Said January 6, 2025

Demo Business Weekly · Holt Brennan on the year ahead (DEMO) · Jan 6, 2025 · example.com

Outcome

The Demo 500 closed 2025 at 6,212.55, above the 6,000 target.

Demo Index Services · Demo 500 index official close, 31 December 2025 (DEMO) · Dec 31, 2025 · example.com

Read the investigation →

Subject: Demo 500 index
Target: ≥ $6,000
Deadline: Dec 31, 2025
Resolution: Correct if the official close on 31 Dec 2025 is above 6,000.
Observed: 6,212.55 USD · manual · Dec 31, 2025 (America/New_York)

Resolved incorrectDemo only · fictional

“DemoCoin hits one hundred thousand dollars before 2026. I'd bet my house on it.”

Dex Calloway · Said March 3, 2025

The Demo Stack Podcast · Episode 201: Bear market survival (DEMO) · at 08:15 · Mar 3, 2025 · example.com

Outcome

DemoCoin's highest UTC daily close in the window was $71,400.

Demo CoinData · DemoCoin daily price history 2025 (DEMO) · Jan 1, 2026 · example.com

Subject: DemoCoin
Target: ≥ $100,000
Deadline: Dec 31, 2025
Resolution: Correct if any UTC daily close is at or above $100,000 before 1 Jan 2026.
Observed: 71,400 USD · coingecko · Dec 31, 2025 (UTC)

Resolved incorrectDemo only · fictional

“DemoCorp is going to be a five-hundred-dollar stock by the end of this year. Write it down.”

Marla Quint · Said January 2, 2024

Demo Markets Network · Closing Bell Demo — 2 January 2024 (DEMO) · at 12:44 · Jan 2, 2024 · example.com

Outcome

DMCO never closed at or above $500 in 2024. Highest close: $268.10. Close on 31 Dec 2024: $212.40.

Demo Exchange Market Data · DemoCorp (DMCO) daily closing prices, 2024 (DEMO) · Jan 2, 2025 · example.com

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Subject: DemoCorp (DMCO)
Target: ≥ $500.00
Deadline: Dec 31, 2024
Resolution: Correct if DMCO closes at or above $500 on any trading day up to and including 31 Dec 2024.
Observed: 212.4 USD · manual · Dec 31, 2024 (America/New_York)

OpenDemo only · fictional

“I think DemoCorp is a $400 stock by the end of 2027.”

Holt Brennan · Said May 12, 2026

Demo Business Weekly · Brennan sees "a slow grind higher" for DemoCorp (DEMO) · May 12, 2026 · example.com

Subject: DemoCorp (DMCO)
Target: ≥ $400.00
Deadline: Dec 31, 2027
Resolution: Correct if DMCO closes at or above $400 on 31 Dec 2027.